Covetous Economy - China ogling

 Strengths within

An article in @SwarajyaMag on economic roadmap for India that concludes that foreign Investment is the solution to our woes is the trigger for this post.

I read that article, first time superficially, as I only was seeing in it what I have read earlier but in new composition. There is nothing new to it except that it appears, this time, in a magazine that is perceived as one sympathetic to Right politics.  I could not take the article out of mind for over two days and none of the reasons was positive. I thought I will put my counterview here.

The article written by Jaithirth Rao, http://swarajyamag.com/magazine/ready-the-east-india-company-hangover/ argues that allowing uninhibited foreign investment will solve all our economic problems, a-la-China. For this purpose the measure of success is marked as the achieving of economic parameters of China. It was so monochromatic an objective, as if nothing else matters to India.

In our school days, we read a story as part of curriculum, that I hardly hear nowadays. It goes like this. In a village there lived a farmer with three sons. His field was ripe to be harvested and in that field lived a mother Lark (vanambadi in Tamil) with her hatchlings.

One day when the mother had gone out in search of food for her hatchlings, the farmer arrives at the field with his sons and tells them that it is time for harvesting the field. He asks his sons to call their relatives to come the next day to help them harvest.

The hatchlings, hearing this, get very agitated and as soon as the mother came home, tell her that they have to leave immediately, narrating the farmer’s plan. Mother was nonchalant and assuages her children that there is nothing to fear.

Next day the farmer and sons arrive at the field and wait for the help to arrive to start harvesting, but no one turns up. As it became midday, the farmer tells his children to bring over the village men the next day this time.

Again when the mother comes home, the hatchlings scramble in fear, yet the mother tells it is not time to move yet. The next day the farmer again waits for people to arrive and none turn up. This time the farmer tells his sons that they can wait no more and the next day they will do the harvest by themselves, waiting for none.

When the mother heard this, she told her children that it is time to move now as surely the field will be harvested the next day.

This is a great RW story, if one gets the drift.

Hinduism and Buddhism are replete with texts that teach us that the solution to our problems lie within and not without. Indian minds, especially those from the Convent educated as well as the political class, are so enamoured with the rose plant in blooms across the fence that they never tire of telling us that uprooting that plant and bringing it over our side of the fence is the only way we can have those flowers. Growing and nurturing a rose plant does not seem to be an option at all. It is a state of mind that we seem to lack. We do seem to think that the flowers  bloom across the fence because it was borrowed from some other garden. ‘Up by the bootstraps’ is for those who we hold in awe. We are incapable of creating, as the colonial education has taught us. We only have many things to be ashamed of.

Amongst the new nations that became global power, Israel stands out as one. Though it took help from others it never sold itself lock stock and barrel. It looked inside, found in its strength in own culture, language and ethos. Today, Israel has one of the best Universities, has built wealth of knowledge in own language and technology that is home grown. Even simple solutions such as drip irrigation were one that addressed a local problem with home grown and ground breaking solution.

Imitation is not the solution to success but definitely to join the ‘also ran’ club. Most educated and political class of India only think as much. To them, imitation is the highest form of knowledge they can acquire and the reason why they think so is not difficult to understand.

And Marx was not entirely wrong when he said that Capital is the surplus labour either. Those who clamour for foreign capital are also those who have a share in that economy and from the crony Capitalism of yesterdays.  

Our political classes as well as our Economic leaders have always preached these kinds of covetous ideologies, desiring to introduce, from Capitalism to communism to socialism to vassal economy on to a large nation with history running to thousands of years that have shaped intractable values in each one of us. What grows in cold and frozen lands during brief outbursts of sunshine may not thrive in all around sunny weather of India, figuratively.

China, for many reasons, is not our role model. The impending change in demography in China is a huge risk to its character as a nation. Demography trumps politics and politics trumps economics. The west has corroded into the Chinese culture through evangelism, a carrier of Western capital, its surplus labour.

The nation was built by force and not on consensus and the impact of that is inestimable from where we stand in history. The mindless pursuit of economic power has left China an environmental disaster waiting to happen. It has limited Freedom of Expression, the power house that impels a successful economy to thriving civilization, to growth, success, and leadership. Again, a mere 20 years is a blip in history. Not to fall head over heels on momentary, as least as of now, of economic success.

On an objective level, the educated and political classes in India have failed to do a proper analysis of our strengths and weaknesses and build on the reality of our nation. There is an element of ‘predatory capitalism’ in this pursuit of external solutions. As the West sucked out the juices of their colonies either through colonialism or through corporatism, the Indian counterparts do see an opportunity to pick up crumbs and emulate.  The agents for foreign capital do so due to their lack of appetite for risk. By turning agents to foreign capital, while Individual risk is low, the gain can be enormous, perpetuating their crony capitalist status in India. The indigenous innovation can be whipped into obliteration and submission with brute force of money.

The US after decimating the inhabiting Indians for economic gains, did invest in pursuit of knowledge. The country invested in education, research, and scientific pursuits. The reason the US is an economic leader today is partly due to chance and partly due to its long term investments in knowledge. US also have a culture of Freedom, the contribution of which to its growth is often understated.

The role of Indian economic leaders in our current state of abysmal economy is another story. The Tatas, Birlas and the later day Ambanis, Narayana Murthys and the other IT body-sellers who masqueraded as knowledge bank have actively contributed in keeping India a follower state.  What is their contribution to building nation viz a viz their own wealth? When these IT Czars pontificate, merely on the strength of their dollar gotten affluence, not because of their contribution to breaking new grounds in Science and Technology but due to the favourable chance event that benefited India, hiring out bodies, one has to be careful not to mistake them for intellectuals. These are people who would invest in real estates, low risk assets and Technologies that will allow them to sell more bodies. I recall Modi ji speaking in an enclave that he wants India not to be a skill pool but a knowledge pool. Not a provider of work force but a nation of knowledge that will create opportunities for itself. How did these economic leaders contribute to that call?  

What have they done to spawn research that breaks new grounds? Zilch.

I do admit that this is a mere criticism without offering an alternative. But it does not mean such ideas do not exist. Another time, another place.

As a conclusion, Indian revival is not mere GDP numbers. It is about building a nation; discovering the internal strength that had this great civilization going for millennium; discovering solutions that spring out of the problems.

It is not about adapting models that worked elsewhere. It is not about transplant of simplified, imitative ideas. We need imaginative political leadership, educated class of people and economic leaders. We are there in political leadership but the economic leadership has failed India as it does not try to rise above a petty brokering role.

 

Media Monsters & Delhi Election

Buried truth in TV Cacophony

The English TV channels blaring out exit polls predictions are not even trying to hide their gloat. All media houses are very satisfied with the result exit-polls predict and have finally got a moment to boast of ‘I told you so’.

The anchors suddenly appear all puffed up and are competing with each other to portray themselves as modern prophets, Political pundits and public opinion moulders. They are able to hide all the welts they had received in the last elections with this one exit poll prediction. It is as if, the combined results of the past few elections are reversed with this single one.

Some of the conclusions being dished out to unsuspecting and worried BJP supporters are

1.       This is a defeat for BJP and/or Modi ji

2.       Middle class has deserted BJP

3.       BJP’s development promise has fallen apart

4.       AAP promise of development has more takers

5.       BJP’s fortune has dwindled.

Most TV anchors reach that position by influence and political leveraging. I believe strongly in their lack of intelligence. This is a breed that makes the practitioners of the world’s oldest trade look honourable in every aspect. Let me tell what they are not talking about

The 2013 election result vs 2014 exit-poll predictions for Delhi is given here

Party	Vote % 2013	Vote % 2015 Exit poll
BJP	33.07	40%
AAP	29%	42%
Congress	25%	12%
Others	12%	7%

*will not add to 100% due to rounding off of decimals
First of all, the difference between vote shares of BJP and AAP is a mere 2%. This has to be kept in mind. 

It is evident that BJP has added 7% additional votes to its last year’s share. The marginal increase in turnout alone cannot explain the 7% increase in total vote share.

AAP vote share has taken a dramatic increase, by about 13% and there is a corresponding decrease in Congress vote share. There is an argument that the BJP vote share was 46% in Lok Sabha election and hence in this election their vote share has come down. This is highly speculative as the vote share is determined by different sets of reasons for these two elections. Hence the fair comparison would be the 2013 Assembly election which is also not too very distant in the past.

The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn is BJP has been able to shore up more support than before. It can only mean one thing. The number of people who want BJP to come to power in 2015 is more than the number of year 2013. This is in spite of or due to utterances of Sakshi Maharaj, Sadhvis etc which were shown to be abhorrent by the media.  To attribute this increase to any particular reason would be at best speculative. To describe the increase in vote share as a loss caused by Sakshi Maharaj is sheer vitiated propaganda.

The vote share of AAP has also increased between 2013 and 2015 substantially. In the 2013 election Congress had obtained 53% of the Muslim votes while in 2015, according to one poll, AAP has received 71% of Muslim votes. One thing that can be certainly said is that Muslims have moved from Congress camp to AAP camp decisively. The Muslim shift alone should cover about 5-6% of increase in AAP vote share, more than half of the total.

The other half of increase for AAP could most probably by strategic voting by anti-BJP voters.

In summary, BJP has managed to wrest 8% from other parties on the development platform, at least half of AAP vote gain has come from polarized votes. In this respect the support of MIM and the call from Imam Bukhari cannot be discounted. There have been many explicit calls from Muslims to fellow Muslims to vote for AAP. In the case of Bukhari, the call to vote for AAP would surely have influenced some to vote for AAP and the refusal from AAP stemmed the Hindu reaction. AAP seems to have gained the best of the polarization. Had Hindus polarized, AAP would have been history.

The media has played second fiddle to AAP, which could have probably moved another couple of % of voters into believing AAP is a better option.

So revisiting the questions

1.       This is a defeat for BJP and/or Modi ji

2.       Middle class has deserted BJP

3.       BJP’s development promise has fallen apart

4.       AAP promise of development has more takers

5.       BJP’s fortune has dwindled.

This is surely not a defeat for BJP or Modi ji. BJP has been able to convince more people on local issues. Whether Kiran Bedi’s induction into BJP contributed positively or negatively remains shrouded in theories, the fact remains BJP has gained voter confidence in comparison to 2013 election.

To say middle class has deserted BJP stems from the false argument that BJP has fared badly in this election compared to 2013. If middle class has deserted BJP has lower class support increased by 8 + x %, (x = the % of middle class desertion)?

To say that BJP’s development promise has fallen apart also goes against the gains BJP has made in Assembly election.

To say AAP promise of development has impressed more would be difficult to swallow as the bulk of support has come from Muslims. We do not know about the support of Christians which was earlier Congress monopoly. Nor is there any reason to believe that AAP’s promise of development has captive audience only amongst Muslims.  

The Media has all the reason to t(h)rash BJP as BJP is not giving any lift or leverage to media brokers unlike the earlier government. Media is projecting false reasons to demoralize BJP supporters but the facts remain that BJP has done better and more people have put their trust in BJP this time than the last election.

The rise of AAP is reasonably explained by religious polarization of Muslim vote, along with strategic voting of other groups who are anti-BJP all egged on by partisan and ideologically committed Media.

Having said that, under the adverse circumstances, many of them were creations of a defunct government that undermined our nation in every possible way.

One of the outcomes of this election is the invisible hand of MIM in the operations of the Delhi Government. Now that we have seen the workings of Telengana, it is not difficult to guess Delhi’s. The naïve Hindus have allowed a regime that is installed by party with communal and divisive goals. The divisive and polarizing politics of AAP will make Delhi a WB in coming days. The communal agenda of AAP backers will be brought to the fore. And that will bring the critical tilting edge to BJP. Until then, Delhi will suffer the ill effects of demographic reality that cannot be wished away.

It is not reason that won but emotions have overwhelmed reason. To discuss political outcome as if it is a scientific experiment with immutable laws only shows that the TV anchors do not have the brains to handle complex ideas. And except the obvious suspect of polarization, the Media morons were pointing fingers at every other imaginary culprits, for identifying the correct culprit at this point of time would tantamount to self-indictment.

If I were to learn lessons from Delhi elections, they would be.

1.       BJP has done better than before, and that is a confirmation that BJP policies find more acceptance

2.       BJP losing this time is mainly due to a communal game played by AAP with the help of MIM, a game of minority appeasement and communal politics

3.       Muslim have not responded to ‘development’ plank as much as to ‘Islam’ plank

4.       AAP win is mainly due to its takeover of vote banks from the earlier owner, Congress

The big question remains if BJP had underplayed polarization card? Was polarizing Hindus the fitting reply to MIM’s plan? Only time will tell.  

Other questions that defy answers are

a. What portion of 8% increase of support to BJP is due to reaction to Bukhari/MIM?
b. Had BJP made efforts to polarize would it have brought another 1.5% net increase which could have swung the result in opposite way?

If minority polarization scripted this win for AAP right under Hindu nose, Media house provided the cover for the crime to be committed. That is the story of Delhi Election for me.

AAP - Sorelian Myth Makers

 Anarchic objectives through Sorel Myths

Within a span of 15 months Delhi sees another colossal waste of money as it goes into election once again. The 2015 one appears to be the mother of all elections given the high pitch campaigning and the cacophony emanating from the capital. 

The reason for the second election is squarely on AAP which frittered away its chance to provide Governance and establish credibility amongst voters. However they blamed BJP for not forming government with the help of their arch rival Congress. It seemed irrational to put the blame on BJP but there is a method in the madness of AAP’s diabolic working.  

During the Anna movement, incipient AAP, or the embryonic AAP declared in one voice that it will not join politics and stay apolitical but soon Team Anna reversed that decision. Post separation from Anna, VK Singh and Bedi, the left over Team Anna coalesced as AAP, with Arvind Kejriwal leading the pack. It was evident from the beginning that this was a party that painted the establishment black and explicitly painting themselves the opposite. From the beginning AAP campaigning is based on the paradigm of ‘I am right and you are wrong and the proof is, I am right’ type of circular logic escaping people like me. It cleaved the society into two convenient sections, ‘We’ the good and ‘They’ the bad. While most of us know that such ‘Black and White’ classification is incorrect representation of reality, AAP knowingly employs such divisive tactics as it serves the purpose of easy consumption of such an idea by its gullible followers. The party arrogantly overlooks the inherent flaws of such an argument yet seems to succeed on the ground. This needs explanation and this blog tries to do just that.   

It all looks very confusing in the beginning for these are the guys who are intelligent or at least clever and talk of integrity and honesty but their actions often seem to be antagonistic to their image. On TVs they appear composed and talk of tolerance and democracy and the next moment and they also throw stones at political opponents. They talk about human rights and fuel xenophobia at the same time. They don the image of Gandhian and support violent Marxist elements. The leader claims to have turned a believer at convenient political moment. AAP claims to be secular yet turns vassal to the rabid communal Bukharis. They speak of Nationalism and dividing the country. It is a never ending story of a successful psychopath who churns out new version of a convincing lie to those who want to believe in whatever crumbs they are throws at.

To understand AAP better, one needs to be conversant with George Sorel; for those who are not, here is a brief introduction to Sorel and AAP’s action conforming to his theory of myths.

George Sorel, a French philosopher who lived between 1822 and 1922 propounded the “theory of revolutionary syndicalism. His notion of the power of myth inspired Marxists and Fascists” – Wikipeida (Italics mine)

What is to be noted is the group that is inspired by Sorel. Very close to what many think AAP really is.

Sorel was a champion anti-Statist who extolled the virtue of using myths in achieving the ends. He advocated the role of ‘myth’ in ‘constituting and fomenting political activism’.

AAP has repeatedly and consistently made outrageous conspiratorial claims that are easy to believe in but impossible to prove or intellectually defend. The target audience are the simple minded and disgruntled votary groups where debate is an expensive mental exercise but slogans of hope, however unrealistic, bind them together.  And the purpose was to break the State, an anarchist ambition that AAP has always been accused of and to an extent conceded by its leader.

He (Sorel) ‘celebrated doctrine of social myth which alone gives life to social movements (approximate quotes from Mark Atliff)

There are numerous examples of AAP created myth that caught the imagination of public and media. In India, where outrage is the only criteria for coverage, myths were outrageous while being saleable making it attractive to TV houses selling their honor for TRP. The media actively participated in spreading the myth as widely as possible. AAP’s spends all its efforts to build and energize a social movement not by intelligent debate but by selling snake oil myths.

When Sisodia blared into a megaphone from within the Hospital, he created a myth of AAP being a sympathetic and people focused party. Once the emotions are aroused with a myth, it is difficult to undo it. After that particular rape, there have been many more that took place in Delhi, but there was no repeat of high decibel drama as the lie has been entrenched in the minds of people for good.

“A myth is compounded of images that are ‘warmly colored’, and affect men not as reason does, nor education of the will, nor the command of a superior, but as ferment of the soul which creates enthusiasm and incites to action, and if need be, to turbulence. Myths need have no historical reality; they direct our emotions mobilize our will, give purpose to all that we are and do and make.  

The quote seems to describe AAP politics prophetically.

One only has to do a rough calculation of money that is required to turn to reality the electoral promises being made by AAP to understand that there is no intent to keep those promises by AAP. But that does not matter. The imagery is being created to leave a deep favourable iimpression in the minds of the voters. The promises are ‘warmly coloured’, and is intended to create enthusiasm and turbulence.  The purpose of the promise is to create a myth which requires little mind flexing.

Myth, according to Sorel was “artificial combinations invented to give the appearance of reality to hopes that inspire men in their present activity”

There freebies that are promised are so unrealistic that any government that tries to implement will go broke multiple times. Greece is an example of the effect of perpetual freebies that broke the economy and the susceptibility of the disgruntled to fall victim to Socialistic myth. The power, water, library, CCTV and all other things paint an impossible to achieve state of harmony and tranquil that are promised only by Abrahamic religions in return to acceptance of their Gods as supreme. In that AAP tries to become a religion in political arena.  It does not matter that the myth is an atrocious lie; what matters is it stirs the hope in the hopeless today, for tomorrow will be presented another myth to alleviate the pains. And such a path leads to a socialistic anarchy, the objective of ideologies that believe in Sorelian myths.

Sorel’s theory continues to be attractive to the radical left by virtue of his intransigent call for an abrupt rupture with the political status quo, and his recourse to mobilizing myths as a means of galvanizing activist cadres as the potential ‘spark’ of revolution.

Here lies the crunch. AAP has always been masquerading as a democratic party yet there have been many instances when its actions appeared to have been Anarchistic or Naxal inspired. Sorelian myths historically inspired Marxists and Fascists that creates a breakdown of Law and Order, an Anarchist’s dream. AAP has cast aspersions on Police, Judiciary and Elected representatives and these aspersions and media, except the ones that saw a ‘revolutionary’, a Marxian accolade in Kejriwala. 

On the political front, the party spreads such blatant lies because they know that reason is not the weapon that gets political victory but Sorelian myth.  

Selling lies -Sorel Style

There are two things BJP should undertake to counter AAP. One, by explaining the larger picture to public, that AAP believes in creating myths, falsehood as a matter of political ideology to seize power as planned strategy. Two, by exploding the myth, not all of them but the most salient ones with catchy communication, thus, paying back AAP in the same coin. In other words, BJP should refuse to drawn into multiple myth-breaking wars but focus on those which it assesses to be won with cost-effectiveness and selectively attack the low-hanging fruits. 

Though I do not claim to have found a solution to counter the Sorelian myths being created by AAP, I am sure understanding the workings of AAP, many would be able to devise better strategies.